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Abstract


EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT

In this study, we examine real exchange rate effect on trade balance both in the short run and long run by using quarterly data set from 1992 to 2011 for Turkey. Also other determinants of trade balance of Turkey such as oil prices, real foreign and domestic income are taken into the model in order to observe whether these variables cause trade deficit or not. Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied with Johansen cointegration analysis, Granger causality test and generalized impulse response analysis. VECM findings suggest existence of long run relationship between real exchange rate and trade balance which generates S curve pattern rather than J curve. We find also existence of short run relationship between real exchange rate and trade balance under Wald test but not under Granger causality analysis.



Keywords
Trade deficit, VECM, Johansen co-integration analysis, J Curve, exchange rate


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